Tony Winner Predix

What follows are my winner predictions and final standings for this year's Tony Awards, given this Sunday evening. I'm also an officialGoldDerby.com Tony Predictor this season...

In order of most to least likely to win the award with my current pick for winner at #1.

NEW MUSICAL

1. Hairspray
2. Movin' Out
3. Amour
4 .A Year With Frog and Toad

Amour and Toad are nearly tied for "Not Gonna Win" as Hairspray is nearly three times as likely to take home the award.

REVIVAL MUSICAL

1. Nine
2. Gypsy
3. La Boheme
4. Man of La Mancha

Nine is twice as likely to win over its only major competition in Gypsy.

NEW PLAY

1. Take Me Out
2. Enchanted April
3. Vincent in Brixton
4 .Say Goodnight Gracie

Yawn.

REVIVAL PLAY

1. Long Day's Journey Into Night
2. A Day in the Death of Joe Egg
3. Dinner at Eight
4. Frankie and Johnny

This should easily go to LOng Day's with Egg pretty far behind.

SPECIAL EVENT

1. The Play What I Wrote
2. Russell Simmons' Def Poetry Jam
3. Jackie Mason: Prune Danish
4. Bill Maher: Victory Begins At Home

Had Play been deemed a Play it wouldn't have won a thing. Now that it's The Special Event What I Wrote, it should take home this one. Had Play been deemed a Play, Russell Simmon's would have the lock. Now he settles for a still very possible spoil.

ACTOR, MUSICAL

1. Harvey Fierstein (Hairpray)
2. Antonio Banderas (Nine)
3. Brian Stokes Mitchell (La Mancha)
4. John Selya (Movin' Out)
5. Malcom Gets (Amour)

Harvey's come out swinging in the last few weeks and his momentum should bring him the award. Antonio still has a major shot as Gets drops out and Selya gains slightly.

ACTRESS, MUSICAL

1. Marissa Jaret Winokur (Hairspray)
2. Bernadette Peters (Gypsy)
3. Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio (La Mancha)
4. Elizabeth Parkinson (Movin' Out)
5. Melissa Errico (Amour)

Sorry, Bernie.

FEATURED ACTOR, MUSICAL

1. Dick Latessa (Hairspray)
2. John Dossett (Gypsy)
3 Corey Reynolds (Hairspray)
4. Michael Cavanaugh (Movin' Out)
5. Keith Roberts (Movin' Out)

No contest.

FEATURED ACTRESS, MUSICAL

1. Jane Krakowski (Nine)
2. Chita Rivera (Nine)
3. Mary Stuart Masterson (Nine)
4. Tammy Blanchard (Gypsy)
5. Ashley Tuttle (Movin' Out)

One of the most interesting races. Jane should walk home with it. Blanchard still could be the darkhorse though she's a solid fourth in the standings as I see them.

ACTOR, PLAY

1. Eddie Izzard (Joe Egg)
2. Brian Dennehy (Long Day's Journey)
3. Paul Newman (Our Town)
4. Brian Bedford (Tartuffe)
5. Stanley Tucci (Frankie & Johnny)

Izzard has a strong lead on Bennehy. It won't go to Tucci.

ACTRESS PLAY

1. Vanessa Redgrave (Long Day's Journey)
2. Fiona Shaw (Medea)
3. Jayne Atkinson (Enchanted April)
4. Clare Higgins (Vincent in Brixton)
5. Victoria Hamilton (Joe Egg)

Shaw gains ground though Redgrave will win.

FEATURED ACTOR, PLAY

1. Denis O'Hare (Take Me Out)
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman (Long Day's)
3. Robert Sean Leonard (Long Day's)
4. Daniel Sunjata (Take Me Out)
5. Thomas Jefferson Byrd (Ma Rainey's)

Potentially interesting though likely to stay consistent and go with O'Hare.

FEATURED ACTRESS, PLAY

1. Linda Emond (Life x )
2. Marian Seldes (Dinner at Eight)
3. Michele Pawk (Hollywood Arms)
4. Christine Ebersole (Dinner at Eight)
5. Kathryn Meisle (Tartuffe)

Meisle, Byrd, Hamilton, Tucci, Roberts and Tuttle might not even bother to show.

DIRECTOR, MUSICAL

1. Jack O'Brien (Hairspray)
2. Baz Luhrmann (La Boheme)
3. David Leveaux (Nine)
4. Twyla Tharp (Movin' Out)

DIRECTOR, PLAY

1. Robert Falls (Long Day's Journey)
2. Joe Mantello (Take Me Out)
3. Deborah Warner (Medea)
4. Laurence Boswell (Joe Egg)

Two man race. Falls will win.

CHOREOGRAPHY

1. Twyla Tharp (Movin' Out)
2. Jerry Mitchell (Hairspray)
3. Robert Longbottom (Flower Drum Song)
4. Melinda Roy (Urban Cowboy)

Another yawn.

BOOK, MUSICAL

1. Hairspray
2. Amour
3 A Year with Frog & Toad
4. Flower Drum Song

Yawn.

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Hairspray
2. Amour
3. A Year with Frog & Toad
4. Urban Cowboy

Are you getting sleepy, too?

ORCHESTRATIONS

1. Hairspray
2. Nine
3. La Boheme
4. Movin' Out

Zzzzz...

SCENIC DESIGN

1. La Boheme
2. Hairspray
3. Dinner at Eight
4. Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Wake me when it's over, please...

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Hairspray
2. La Boheme
3. Dinner at Eight
4. Flower Drum Song

LIGHTING DESIGN

1. La Boheme
2. Hairspray
3. Nine
4. Movin' Out

One Year in Advance Prediction:

2004 BEST MUSICAL GOES TO AVENUE Q

Posted by Mark at June 4, 2003 10:22 PM | TrackBack