This is the fourth year I've been keeping records of my Oscar related predictions. My record, over the last three years, for correct Oscar nominees is 69.4% for all categories, for the big eight it's 77.5% and for the big four categories it's 78.3%.

As far as Oscar nomination predictions go, over time the categories I've best predicted are Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Costume Design, Sound and Visual Effects. For those categories I've predicted at least 4 of 5 (or at least 2 of 3 in related categories) nominees. My worst categories have been Foreign Film, Cinemetography, Make Up and Sound Editing.

This year, as every year, I'll try to increase my accuracy.

It is, perhaps, interesting to note that this year, of the big eight categories, myself and Entertainment Weekly agree on four of five nominees in each category except Best Actress where we agree on all five.

I'll have the official nominees, how I did compared to them and my initial reaction on the morning of February 12 and then I'll take an initial and then official stab at my Oscar winner predictions between then and March 23. Then we get the winners, my results and reactions and I'll shut up about predictions for a few weeks when I'll begin back up again with the Tony nomination and winner predictions!

Anyway, on with my predictions for, and commentary on, this year's set of Oscar nomination predictions...

Note: As always, these are who I feel will be nominated and not neccesarily who I feel should. I've listed my predicted nominees and runners up in the order I feel they'll "place." The higher up they are the more likely it is they'll be nominated. My official predictions for who will wind up nominated are listed in the first five (or three) nomination slots.

Picture

1. A Beautiful Mind
2. Moulin Rouge
3. The Lord of the Rings
4. In The Bedroom
5. Gosford Park

6. Black Hawk Down
7. Memento
8. Harry Potter
9. Shrek
10. Amelie

A Beautiful Mind has gained a momentum that should bring with it quite a few guaranteed nomination slots and many wins, at this point. All five of my first go around predicted nominees have made it to these final predictions though the spoilers have jumped around quite a bit. Gosford Park is the most unstable in the top five with Black Hawk Down and Memento nipping on its heals. Harry Potter and Shrek lag far behind but could upset like Oscar noms are known to do. Amelie, Mullholland and Monster's Ball have been put out to pasture.

Director

1. Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind
2. Peter Jackson, Lord of the Ring
3. Robert Altman, Gosford Park
4. Baz Luhrmann, Moulin Rouge
5. Christopher Nolan, Memento

6. Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down
7. David Lynch, Mulholland Drive
8. Todd Field, In the Bedroom
9. JeanPierre Jeunet, Amelie
10. Michael Mann, Ali

Howard has surged ahead quite far since my initial predictions as the Beautiful Mind train rides into the station. Altman, Lynch and Field continue to slip, though Altman holds onto a nomination spot. Scott could easily replace Nolan who is the only nominee who looks shaky at this point. Amelie, Ali, A.I., Shrek, and Harry Potter's directorial nominations are dead.

Actor

1. Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind
2. Denzel Washington, Training Day
3. Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom
4. Sean Penn, I Am Sam
5. Gene Hackman, The Royal Tenenbaums

6. Kevin Kline, Life As A House
7. Billy Bob Thornton, The Man Who Wasn't There
8. Will Smith, Ali
9. Kevin Spacey, The Shipping News
10. Guy Pierce, Memento

Crowe jumps ahead of Washington who, along with Wilkinson are locks for nominations. Sean Penn should be nominated, though he won't win. Hackman looks to be nominated as well, though there are rumblings that his character may be considered a Supporting role. If this is the case Kevin Kline will take his place. Billy Bob Thornton (The Man Who Wasn't There) is right behind these competitors, but the others: Will Smith, Kevin Spacey, and Guy Pierce are out of luck. Ewan McGregor and John Cameron Mitchell's chances are DOA.

Actress

1. Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom
2. Halle Berry, Monster's Ball
3. Judi Dench, Iris
4. Naomi Watts, Mulholland Drive
5. Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge

6. Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jones' Diary
7. Tilda Swinton, The Deep End
8. Nicole Kidman, The Others
9. Stockard Channing, The Business of Strangers
10. Cate Blanchett, Charlotte Gray

Will someone engrave Spaceck's award already and deliver it to her doorstep? Berry, Dench and Watts are far behind though they look sure to be nominated. Kitman should hang on for the fifth spot with Moulin Rouge as her The Others possibility declines fast. Zellweger and Swinton circle below waiting for their chance to spoil. Say "bye-bye" to the chances of Kidman (The Others), Channing and Blanchett (Charlotte Gray) and to the nomination deaths for Audrey Tautau, Thora Birch and Reese Witherspoon.

Supporting Actor

1. Ben Kingsley, Sexy Beast
2. Jim Broadbent, Iris
3. Steve Buscemi, Ghost World
4. Ian McKellen, Lord of the Ring
5. Hayden Christensen, Life as a House

6. Jon Voight, Ali
7. Tony Shaloub, The Man Who Wasn't There
8. Billy Bob Thornton, Bandits
9. Gene Hackman, The Royal Tenenbaums
10. Jim Broadbent, Moulin Rouge

The same person who delivers Spacek's statue should bring along Kingsley's and kill two winners with one trip as far behind in the should be nominated feild are Broadbent, Buscemi and McKellen. Christensen out the stops at the last minute and his chances have sharply risen high enough for a prediction that he'll grab the last slot out of the slipping hands of Voight who seemed a lock for a nomination for quite some time. Hackman in Tenenbaums is an odd spoiler in this category given the off chance that he may be considered for this category rather than Actor.

Supporting Actress

1. Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind
2. Helen Mirren, Gosford Park
3. Maggie Smith, Gosford Park
4. Marisa Tomei, In the Bedroom
5. Judi Dench, The Shipping News

6. Kate Winslet, Iris
7. Cameron Diaz, Vanilla Sky
8. Emily Watson, Gosford Park
9. Dakota Fanning, I Am Sam
10. Cate Blanchett, Bandits

Kate Winslet falls far from her predicted nomination and win from my original predictions. Instead Connelly rides the Mind hype for nomination and a projected win. Along with her, pretty much set for definite noms are Mirren, Smith and Tomei who surprisingly hasn't fell much after a no show in SAG noms. Dench should take the last slot though Winslet and Diaz are close behind. In the "it was an honor just to be thought of" category are Watson, Fanning and Blanchett (Bandits).

Original Screenplay

1. Memento
2. Gosford Park
3. Mulholland Drive
4. The Man Who Wasn't There
5. The Royal Tenenbaums

6. Monster's Ball
7. Moulin Rouge
8. The Others
9. Amelie
10. Ali

Memento hasn't moved in ages and won't in the coming weeks. Behind it are Gosford and Mulholland who should surely be nominated with The Man Who Wasn't There and Tenenbaums behind it. On the verge of possible noms are Monster's Ball and Moulin Rouge. No longer breathing include The Others, Amelie, Ali and Sexy Beast.

Adapted Screenplay

1. A Beautiful Mind
2. The Lord of the Rings
3. In the Bedroom
4. Ghost World
5. Black Hawk Down

6. Shrek
7. Bridget Jones's Diary
8. The Shipping News
9. Iris
10. Hedwig & the Angry Inch

Memento hasn't moved in ages and won't in the coming weeks. Behind it are Gosford and Mulholland who should surely be nominated with The Man Who Wasn't There and Tenenbaums behind it. On the verge of possible noms are Monster's Ball and Moulin Rouge. No longer breathing include The Others, Amelie, Ali and Sexy Beast.A Beautiful Mind rests comfortably in the number one slot with Lord, Bedroom and Ghost world snagging comfortable pleasure to be nominated spots. Black Hawk Down should also stay in its nomination slot with Shrek, Bridget Jones' Diary and The Shipping News rounding out the possible spoiler spots. Iris and Hedwig hang on very loose.

The Other Categories:

(Predictions for most likely to be nominated are ranked first.)

Foreign Film

1. Amélie (France)
2. No Man's Land (Bosnia)
3. Behind the Sun (Brazil)
4. Juana la Loca (Spain)
5. Our Lady Of The Assassins (Columbia)

6. Dark Blue World (Czech Rep.)
7. Atanjurat: The Fast Runner (Canada)
8. Elling (Norway)
9. The Sons Room (Italy)
10. Baran (Iran)

Animated Feature

1. Shrek
2. Monster's Inc.
3. Waking Life

4. Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within
5. Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius
6. Osmosis Jones

Documentary Feature

1. Startup.com
2. The Gleaners and I
3. In Cane For Life
4. The Endurance: Shackleton's Legendary Antarctic Expedition
5. Down from the Mountain

6. Keep the River On Your Right: A Modern Cannibal's Tale

Cinematography

1. The Man Who Wasn't There
2. Lord of the Rings
3. Black Hawk Down
4. Moulin Rouge
5. A Beautiful Mind

6. Mulholland Drive
7. A.I.
8. Ali
9. The Shipping News

Art Direction

1. Lord of the Rings
2. Harry Potter
3. Gosford Park
4. Moulin Rouge
5. A.I.

6. Black Hawk Down
7. A Beautiful Mind
8. The Shipping News
9. Lord of the Rings
10. The Others

Costume Design

1. Lord of the Rings
2. Gosford Park
3. Moulin Rouge
4. Affair of the Necklace
5. Harry Potter
6. A Beautiful Mind

Original Score

1. Lord of the Rings
2. A.I.
3. The Shipping News
4. Harry Potter
5. A Beautiful Mind

6. Mulholland Drive
7. Gosford Park
8. Moulin Rouge

Original Song

1. Vanilla Sky - Paul McArtney "Vanilla Sky"
2. Kate and Leopold - Sting "Until"
3. Lord of the Rings - Enya "May It Be"
4. Monsters, Inc. - Randy Newman "If I Didn't Have You"
5. Pearl Harbor - Faith Hill "There You'll Be"
6. A Beautiful Mind - Charlotte Church "All Love Can Be"

Editing

1. Black Hawk Down
2. Lord of the Rings
3. Memento
4. Gosford Park
5. Moulin Rouge

6. A Beautiful Mind
7. A.I.
8. Ali

Makeup

1. Planet of the Apes
2. Harry Potter
3. Lord of the Rings

4. A Beautiful Mind
5. Moulin Rouge
6. A.I.

Visual Effects

1. Lord of the Rings
2. A.I
3. Harry Potter

4. Black Hawk Down
5. Pearl Harbor
6. Cats And Dogs

Sound Design

1. Lord of the Rings
2. Black Hawk Down
3. A.I.
4. Pearl Harbor
5. Moulin Rouge

6. The Others
7. Planet of the Apes
8. The Fast and The Furious

Sound Effects

1. Black Hawk Down
2. The Fast and the Furious
3. Lord of the Rings

4. Pearl Harbor
5. A.I.

This entry has 1 Comment:

Best Picture category staying pretty still. Monster's Ball gaining and Harry Potter losing slight steam.

Lynch falls fast, Ridley Scott replaces Christopher Nolan who now joins Todd Field for neck and neck spoilers in Best Director nom category.

Actor category almost motionless though Kline and Thornton change places.

Kidman's Oscar chances sliding as Zellweger jumps into the Actress nomination pack.

Voight back to gaining a better chance at a Supporting Actor nom.

Supporting Actress remains stagnant.

Mullholland losing, as Tenenbaums and The Man gain, power. Memento and Gosford are the only locks with Tenebaums, The Man, Mulholland, Rouge, and Ball in a neck and neck final stretch for the last three spots.

Adapted Screenplay lies motionless.

Mark (02/07/2002 08:08 PM)